[DiaryPoint = Reporter Kim Jeong-hun] The government expects South Korea’s per capita gross national income (GNI) to exceed $40,000 this year. At the average won–dollar exchange rate for the third quarter, that would equal about 57 million won. But the figure is not an individual salary or the amount a household has available to spend.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance forecast on October 27 that per capita GNI would reach the $40,000 range this year. At a September 8 briefing, the Bank of Korea said nominal GNI rose 21.8% in the first half and that the odds of topping $40,000 for the year had become very high if the exchange rate remained stable. The final annual figure is due in March next year.
GNI includes income beyond households
GNI measures the income of a country’s residents: income generated domestically plus net income from abroad. Per capita GNI divides that total by the population. It is an average that includes corporate operating surplus and government income as well as wages.
In an economic outlook published September 30, the National Assembly Budget Office found that corporate operating surplus accounted for 78.7% of the increase in GNI in the first half of this year, while government income made up 4.0%. Compensation of employees—the component corresponding to labor income—accounted for 16.5%. The analysis points to stronger earnings in export industries such as semiconductors and a recovery in corporate profits as drivers of GNI growth.
Household disposable income is a separate measure
A closer measure of households’ capacity to spend is household gross disposable income (PGDI). It is the income households and nonprofit institutions serving households can use after taxes and transfers are taken into account. Per capita PGDI shows the household share on a per-person basis.
An earlier 2026 outlook from the National Assembly Budget Office projected per capita GNI would rise from 52.42 million won in 2025 to 55.5 million won in 2026, while per capita PGDI would increase from 28.78 million won to 30.02 million won over the same period. Those were projections at the time. In its report at the end of September, the office sharply raised its forecast for this year’s GNI growth to 21.8% and said it would take time for the increase to spread to household incomes.
Dollar-converted income is not the same as purchasing power
Per capita GNI in dollars is calculated by converting income measured in won at the exchange rate. When the won strengthens, the dollar value of the same won-denominated income rises; when the won weakens, the dollar figure can fall. The Bank of Korea has explained changes in per capita GNI in terms of real income growth, prices, the won–dollar exchange rate and population shifts.
The $40,000 forecast is therefore an average measure based on the nation’s nominal income and the exchange rate. To understand what people feel in their paychecks and household budgets, it is also necessary to look at household disposable income, which reflects wage growth, taxes and transfers, and prices. The Bank of Korea is scheduled to release its preliminary annual national income figures in March next year.