[DiaryPoint = Reporter Kim Jeong-hun] South Korea’s exports totaled $115.28 billion in October, up 93.7% from a year earlier. Semiconductor exports surged 259.4% to $56.44 billion, accounting for about 49% of the total. With the export boom heavily dependent on semiconductors, the growth rate alone is not enough to determine whether semiconductor stocks have further room to rise.
According to trade figures released by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy on November 1, exports topped $110 billion for a second consecutive month. Cumulative exports from January through October reached $930 billion, and the government said South Korea is on track to surpass $1 trillion in annual exports in November. Export figures do not guarantee profits or share-price gains for any individual company.
Look at chip prices and shipment volumes alongside export value
Semiconductor exports topped $50 billion in October, following $60.3 billion in September, though they fell from the previous month. The ministry said high prices and shipment volumes held up as global tech giants continued investing in AI infrastructure. In the next release, it will be important to check not only whether export value rose, but also whether memory prices and shipment volumes continued to hold up.
The release’s figures for fixed memory prices show that from June to October, the price of 16Gb DDR5 rose from $40 to $50, while 128Gb NAND increased from $28.80 to $30.60. Whether this trend continues, and whether export growth is supported by volumes as well as higher prices, will offer clues to the semiconductor sector’s staying power.
Keep an eye on non-semiconductor exports and major markets
Exports of goods other than semiconductors rose 34%, and 18 of the 20 key export categories posted gains. Computer exports jumped 496.6%, driven by demand for server SSDs, while automobiles, cosmetics, and biohealth products also recorded increases. Whether gains continue across a range of categories next month will help show if exports are becoming less concentrated in semiconductors.
Exports rose in seven of South Korea’s nine major destination markets. Shipments to China totaled $26.98 billion, while those to the United States reached $24.9 billion. Exports to ASEAN countries came to $21.33 billion. Investors will also want to see whether demand from China, the United States, and ASEAN holds up, and whether export growth spreads to more markets.
In the next trade release, investors can compare semiconductor export value with memory prices and volumes, average daily exports, exports excluding semiconductors, and results across major markets. Average daily exports in October were $5.24 billion, the second-highest figure on record, but below September’s $5.63 billion. Separate from the outlook for annual exports to top $1 trillion, the key question is whether the pace and composition of exports can be sustained.